|
Market Roundup |
April
26, 2002
This Week
Network Associates Shelves McAfee.com
Buyout Bid
RealNetworks Offers a Real Development
Switchboard/AOL Provide Services to
AT&T mMode
Network Associates announced this week that it was
withdrawing its offer to buy the outstanding 25% of McAfee.com it does not
already own, citing a new set of company accounting irregularities dating back
to 1999. Network Associates said the accounting irregularities did not involve
McAfee.com’s books and were related to the previous management team. According
to the company, the present management team, led by CEO George Samenuk, needs
time to gain a complete understanding of scope of the accounting issues, and
will in all likelihood be forced to restate earnings for the years 1999 and
2000. Samenuk noted that the McAfee.com buyout was a stock swap and without a
clearer picture of Network Associates’ financial picture, no such transaction
could go forward. Samenuk said the deal was off indefinitely, and gave no
indication if such an offer would be made in the future. The latest revelations
come as the SEC is investigating Network Associates for other, unrelated
accounting issues. Network Associates had offered $224 million for McAfee.com;
the offer was scheduled to expire Thursday night. McAfee.com CEO Srivats
Sampath told analysts in a conference call that the company was going ahead as
though the offer had never appeared in the first place, and said McAfee.com
would continue its product rollout plans as scheduled before the unanticipated
Network Associates bid surfaced earlier this month.
Earlier this month, an apparently ardent Network
Associates sprung its acquisition offer on McAfee.com without consulting the
company’s board of directors, and seemed in a hurry to get the deal closed as
quickly as possible. Things stalled after the SEC’s announced investigation,
then got back on track with a slightly higher offering price. Now that this
latest round of accounting irregularities has shelved the deal, Network
Associates could be permanently frustrated in its oft-delayed attempts to
consolidate its product offerings. However, we believe this forced separation
will be a substantial blessing (in disguise now, but out in the open in the
future). What the delay does is give McAfee.com the time and opportunity to
continue to grow its subscription base, draw more clients to its model and
demonstrate the key element in its continuing success — high renewal rates
among existing, satisfied customers.
McAfee.com offers automated renewal services of antivirus, firewalls, and other online security services. The company’s renewal rates have been much higher than traditional shrink-wrap products have garnered, and may offer a powerful illuminator to the value of online services versus boxed products. As we see it, a conflict between a reabsorbed McAfee.com and Network Associates would likely have arisen over NA’s boxed products versus McAfee.com’s services for consumers, an argument that the folks at the Network Associates mother ship would eventually have had the final say over. With this respite from re-absorption, McAfee.com has the opportunity not only to add to its subscriber base and product portfolio, but also to demonstrate that the holy grail of online service providers — customers for life — is possible to attain. Such a demonstration will go a much longer way in convincing Network Associates that there is considerably more to the value of the software-as-a-service model than vague talk about new paradigms or other such gobbledygook. Overall, we believe the failure of the deal offers McAfee.com an opportunity to control its destiny, and gives Network Associates a chance to learn a new business model that might actually bring the company real, and not restated, income.
RealNetworks has announced the latest version of its
RealVideo technology, version 9, which the company claims will offer a 30%
reduction in bandwidth requirement. In other words, RealNetworks claims its
latest video player will give broadband users broadcast-quality video, and
dialup users subscription-quality video. According to RealNetworks, broadband
users at 160Kbps and up experience VHS quality video, and those with 500Kbps
and up will have DVD quality video with the new RealVideo technology. RealNetworks also announced the availability
of the latest version of its RealAudio player, which also allows for higher
quality sound on lower bandwidth connections. RealNetworks claims its RealAudio
Surround will give dial-up users (at 44Kbps) multi-channel surround sound.
RealNetworks also submitted components of its RealVideo 9 to the Joint Video
Team, which is working on the next version of MPEG-4.
A continuing stumbling block to the success of online
video applications has been the relatively small numbers of consumer broadband
adopters, and these numbers are dwarfed by vast majority of consumers who
access the Internet via dialup connections. Furthermore, broadband is largely a
fixed commodity; it does not travel with you from the office or home to a hotel
room, so video conferencing from a hotel room just hasn’t been in the cards.
But with this latest incarnation of RealVideo, we may be seeing a Web-based
application that could actually cause a real shift in behavior of users, who
will apparently be able to view near-broadcast-quality video at slower
connections, and enjoy top-of-the-line video experiences at the lower end of
broadband speeds.
If RealVideo 9 performs as the company claims, we believe large shifts in the tectonic plates of the bandwidth geology could result, as the traditional demarcation lines — broadband and video through cable, email and limited media access through phone lines — move a few yards (or miles) this way or that. With increasing access to reasonable quality (and size) video online, will consumers begin watching the evening news over a phone line? How about the Super Bowl? Do broadband providers see pay-per-view in their future? Will watching a movie be something anyone can do via pay-per-view, Blockbuster, or a site on the Internet? If so, we suspect that the relative delivery costs for each of these methods play a significant role in their final appeal to consumers. Can you say ‘price war’?
Switchboard, Inc., which provides online phone directory
solutions, has announced an expansion of its relationship with AT&T
Wireless. The company will deliver Switchboard free interactive services
including yellow and white pages, reverse phone number lookup, and driving
directions to customers of AT&T’s new mMode service. In an unrelated press
release, America Online announced that it would offer access to AOL Mail and
Instant Messaging (IM) to mMode customers. AOL customers who use mMode will also
be able to access the AOL address book and Buddy List features. No start date
or pricing information was included in either press release.
From where we stand, one obvious and another more subtle
subtext are visible in these announcements. On the obvious side, the stories
illuminate AT&T’s efforts to drive sales of mMode and the company’s new
GSM/GPRS-compatible phone services in the fourteen U.S. metropolitan areas
where they are available. Due to the fractured nature of wireless standards and
services in the U.S. (at least compared to the more technologically homogeneous
European and Asian markets), American consumers have expressed only mild
interest in wireless email and text messaging services that are sweeping the
rest of the world. mMode represents an attempt to incite some of that same
excitement, enthusiasm, and purchasing power among Web-savvy urban U.S.
consumers. From that standpoint, AT&T’s deals with Switchboard and AOL make
perfect sense, given the substantial cost and time savings online directory
services promise consumers, and potential new clients who might well migrate
from AOL to mMode. In fact, we expect an ongoing flood of similar announcements
from other wireless or Web-based content providers hoping that a bit of mMode’s
mojo might just come their way. Additionally, AT&T may serve as an example
for other telecoms entering the GSM/GPRS space.
The subtler tale concerns AT&T’s capability and willingness to cannibalize its own traditional services in order to drive sales in emerging markets. Until the Internet, people wrote letters when they wanted to communicate with friends and family afar, or picked up the phone when they felt like chatting. Email and instant messaging, which continue to be the most popular Web-based applications used by consumers, have impacted the revenues of the USPS and telecom service providers (SPs) with a significance that will likely increase over time. As SPs began to feel the financial pinch, they began charging, sometimes onerously, for services once provided gratis, including directory service. Local calling and service charges will remain with us for as long as the SPs do, and will continue to be used by countless phone users, but the pain can be seemingly dulled for consumers willing to pay for mMode. While AT&T may have seen calling revenues drop when customers embraced online messaging, mMode offers the company a chance to get some of theirs back as customers fork over a bit of green for mMode email and IM services. If new generations build their lives on the bones of their ancestors, AT&T has proven that the same can be said for new forms of wireless messaging and the services that preceded them.
The
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